Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.
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August 03, 2025
Which Industries Are Struggling To Find Good Workers?
A few weeks ago, we discussed the changes in the job market since 1988, but the focus was primarily on the most common jobs.
Now, let’s take a look at which industries are struggling to find qualified candidates or to keep them.
As AI becomes more prevalent, it’s essential to consider several key factors when thinking about jobs and the future of work.
One thing to consider is whether an industry is ripe for disruption ... or just replacement. Another consideration is whether a role can be easily automated.
To start, try to understand which industries are currently seeking job candidates and have long-term stability. Here is a chart from VisualCapitalist showing global employers expecting challenges hiring talent.
Voronoi via visualcapitalist
Labor shortages are increasing globally, and yet many young adults are struggling to find careers.
That’s an interesting contradiction: lots of jobs need people, but lots of young folks can’t find work.
This is crucial because it shows there’s a mismatch — the jobs exist, but the skills, readiness, or interests aren’t aligned with what employers want. It’s not just about having jobs; it’s about having the right people for those jobs. Zooming out, this mismatch reveals a bigger gap in education, training, culture, and how we prepare people for work. Fixing this isn’t just about filling seats; it’s about building a workforce that can grow with the changing economy and replace the aging boomers as they begin to retire en masse.
This chart helps us understand where skilled workers are needed and which industries may be struggling.
Real estate tops the list with 60% anticipating hiring difficulties in the near term. With high interest rates and market volatility, it does make sense. People tend to look for easy wins, and volatility scares both investors and employees alike.
While we know that retail & fast food workers are still among the most common jobs, hospitality has been struggling. This could be caused by labor conditions and complaints about compensation.
Meanwhile, tech, healthcare, and telecom are the least affected by job insecurity. While these are saturated markets, they’re also growing markets with well-defined career paths and consistent demand.
People thrive when given autonomy, mastery, and purpose. Understanding motivation beyond money helps struggling industries rethink job design to attract and keep talent. And in the bigger picture, meaningful work fuels engagement and innovation, creating a cycle of growth and satisfaction.
The struggle to find good workers is a canary in the coal mine—a warning that the world of work is shifting beneath our feet. It matters because work shapes economies and lives. Leaders who grasp not just the “what” but the layered “whys” have a chance to build a future workforce that’s resilient, motivated, and human-centered.
In times like these, some people see the challenges ... while others see the opportunity.
Onwards!
July 27, 2025
Understanding the Shapes of Stories
Seemingly complex things are often simpler when understood.
This applies to many things.
For example, great writing is diverse and nuanced ... but its underlying structure often isn't.
Kurt Vonnegut wrote several "Classics", including Cat's Cradle, Slaughterhouse-Five, and The Sirens of Titan.
Despite his great writing and its complexities, he was able to simplify his stories into a few basic narrative shapes.
Here is a graphic that explains the concept.
Here is a 17-minute video of Vonnegut discussing his theory of the Shape of Stories. You can grasp the basic concepts within the first 7 minutes, but he is witty, and the whole video is worth watching.
You can explore a bit more elaborate version of his "Shapes of Stories" idea in Vonnegut's rejected Master's thesis from the University of Chicago.
Researchers recently extended Vonnegut's idea by using AI to extract the emotional trajectories of 1,327 stories and discover six core emotional arcs. In case you are curious, here they are.
- Rags to riches (a rise)
- Tragedy (a fall)
- Man in a hole (fall, then a rise)
- Icarus (rise, then a fall)
- Cinderella (rise, then a fall, then a rise)
- Oedipus (fall, then a rise, then a fall)
For more on writing from Kurt Vonnegut:
My friend, John Raymonds, also has a substack. He just released a great article on the power of storytelling. It dives deep into the nature of stories and narrative transportation. Check it out.
Have a nice week.
Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 27th, 2025
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.
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Trading Links:
July 20, 2025
Digesting a Bigger Future
We live in a world where technology changes quickly and often, while human nature remains relatively unchanged.
For most of us, human nature is the key variable.
I suspect Henry Ford focused on that when he said, "Whether you think you can or you think you can't. You're right."
Processing the possibilities of tomorrow is often difficult for humans. Part of the problem is that we're wired to think locally and linearly. It's a monumental task for us to comprehend exponential growth, let alone its implications. For example, consider what happened to seemingly smart and forward-looking companies like Kodak, Blockbuster, and RadioShack.
The world changes quickly.
Change is constant. The wheels of innovation and commerce spin ever-faster (whether you're ready for it or not).
As a practical matter, it means that you get to choose between the shorter-term pain of trying to keep up ... or the longer-term pain of being left behind. Said another way, you have to choose between chaos and nothing.
It's hard to keep up – and even harder to stay ahead.
Personally, I went from being one of the youngest and most tech-savvy people in the room to a not-so-young person close to losing their early-adopter beanie. Sometimes it almost seems like my kids expect me to ask them to set my VCR so it stops flashing 12:00 AM all day.
My company may not be doing "rocket science", but it's pretty close. We utilize exponential technologies, such as high-performance computing, AI, and machine learning, to amplify intelligence and make data-driven, evidence-based decisions in real-time, all the time.
But, as we get "techier," I get less so ... and my role gets less technical, over time, too.
Due to my age, experience, and tendency to be a pioneer, I've been battling technology for decades.
Don't get me wrong, technology has always been my friend, and I still love it. But my relationship with it is different now.
I recognize that there are things that change and things that stay the same. And for me, the things that "stay the same" tend to be more important.
Paradoxically, the part of me that stays the same can still change and grow – that is how you become more (and a more evolved version) of that thing.
The Bigger Picture
My father said that not worrying about all the little details helped him see the bigger picture and focus on what was possible.
You don't have to focus on the technological details to predict its progress. Anticipating what people will need is a great predictor of what will get built. That means predicting "what" is often easier than predicting 'how'.
Why is that often the case? Because technology that solves a problem is more profitable and popular than technology searching for a problem to solve.
Here's a video from 1974 of Arthur C. Clarke making some remarkably accurate predictions about the future of technology.
via Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, augmented reality, neuro-interfaces, and a host of exponential technologies are going to change the face and nature of our lives (and perhaps life itself). Some of these technologies have become inevitabilities ... but what they enable is virtually limitless.
Where do you see this going?
Onwards.
Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 20th, 2025
Here are some of the posts that caught my eye recently. Hope you find something interesting.
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How Has The Job Market Changed Since 1988?
1998 was a long time ago. My oldest son was just a twinkle in my eye. Michael Jackson was touring the world for his ‘Bad’ album, and ‘Rain Man’ topped the movie charts. It’s also the year that Microsoft Office was released.
A lot has changed since then. For obvious reasons, the U.S. labor market has changed radically since then ... but how different is it really?
via visualcapitalist
The data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so we can assume it’s relatively accurate.
In 1988, consumer-facing roles, such as salespeople and cashiers, were the most common jobs in 46 states. Comparing that to 2024 highlights how much less reliance we have on brick-and-mortar stores.
While not entirely different, now fast food workers are the most common job in 15 states. This is unsurprising in light of the shift toward lower-wage & flexible-hour service jobs. Meanwhile, retail salespersons are still the top job in 11 states.
Operations managers, home health aides, and freight movers have made significant gains in the U.S. labor market.
I was surprised to see how many home health aides there were, but considering the aging U.S. population, it makes sense.
The U.S. is still clearly a consumer economy; however, the focus has switched towards logistics and supply chain, as people shop increasingly online.
I’ve been thinking a lot about the future of work. People talk about change, but so far, things have felt relatively stable. That’s about to shift. AI is advancing faster than most realize—we’re still early on the curve, but the steep climb is beginning.
We’re entering a phase where AI is no longer just a tool—it’s becoming a collaborator in both our personal and professional lives. This shift will reshape how we work, create, and make decisions. For business leaders, that means looking past the hype and focusing on real value, workforce readiness, and building trust. For employees, it means adapting to a new kind of teamwork—one that includes AI as a core partner in creativity and productivity.
How will those changes show up in a chart like this?
We live in interesting times!
July 13, 2025
Do You Think You're Smart?
I know a lot of smart people.
I also know a lot of people who think they're smarter than they are (even the smart ones ... or, perhaps, especially the smart ones).
It's common. So common, in fact, that there's a name for it. The Dunning-Kruger Effect.
Have you ever met someone who's so confident about what they think that they believe they know more than an expert in a field? That's the Dunning-Kruger effect. It's defined as a cognitive bias where a lack of self-awareness prevents someone from accurately assessing their own skills. It's getting increasingly more common.
Here's a graph that shows the general path a person takes on their journey towards mastery of a subject.
via NC Soy
It can be funny or frustrating to see (or be) the "victims" of this effect in our daily lives.
Humans seem prone to overestimating their knowledge and abilities. It's probably more a result of ignorance than stupidity.
Even if you are familiar with the cognitive bias caused by the Dunning-Kruger Effect, you are not immune to it — because you don't know what you don't know.
Two different ways that people get it wrong, first is to think about other people and it’s not about me. The second is thinking that incompetent people are the most confident people in the room, that’s not necessarily true.
Usually, that shows up in our data, but they are usually less confident than the really competent people but not that much... - David Dunning
It should be a reminder to reflect inward, not cast aspersions outward.
To close out, even this article on the Dunning-Kruger effect presents a simplification of its findings. First off, the above image isn't actually a part of the paper on the Dunning-Kruger Effect (though it is ironically so prevalent that people often report that it is). Furthermore, the connection between a lack of ability and the inability to engage in meta-cognitive tasks is intuitive, but it is not the only potential takeaway from the paper. It's worth a read if you have the time.
Regardless, I think it's clear we are all victims of an amalgam of different cognitive biases.
We judge ourselves situationally, and assume "the best" of ourselves. Meanwhile, we often assume "the worst" of others.
We can do better ... it starts with awareness.
Progress starts by telling the truth.
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Moving the Markets
Lighter Links
Recent Posts
- BlackRock's Meteoric Rise ...
- Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - August 3rd, 2025
- Which Industries Are Struggling To Find Good Workers?
- Understanding the Shapes of Stories
- Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 27th, 2025
- The Future of Biohacking
- Digesting a Bigger Future
- Here Are Some Links For Your Weekly Reading - July 20th, 2025
- How Has The Job Market Changed Since 1988?
- Do You Think You're Smart?
BlackRock's Meteoric Rise ...
I don’t usually write about individual companies, but an infographic highlighting BlackRock’s impressive growth caught my eye.
BlackRock has been around since 1988. It wasn’t until the early 2000s that it really took off, but since then, they’ve clearly been doing something right.
Now, they are the world’s largest asset manager.
Voronoi via visualcapitalist
In 2006, BlackRock acquired Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, nearly doubling its AUM, but its CAGR shows that it’s not just luck that has helped BlackRock achieve its current position.
In 2023, when I reviewed their equity holdings, they held approximately $9 trillion in assets. Now that has grown to more than $12 trillion.
While they aren’t as transparent as Berkshire Hathaway about what they do or how they do it, according to its website, BlackRock positions itself as a systematic investor that leverages vast datasets and new technologies.
Comparing again to Berkshire Hathaway, both have invested heavily in Apple, which isn’t particularly surprising.
While I enjoy insights into other investors' playbooks, it’s not the be-all and end-all. It’s simply one way to invest ... and might be a reasonable way to get from a lot of money to even more money - but their trading strategy isn’t necessarily going to work for the average investor (or you).
Still, when there is blood in the streets … asking, “What would Warren or Blackrock do?” might be a great place to start.
However, it is challenging to maintain an edge if you use the same process and data as your competitors (especially when they have enough assets to use time or trade size to their advantage).
As the flywheels of commerce spin faster, edges will emerge and decay faster than ever before. Finding a solution is only a step in an ongoing process.
Robust, reliable, and repeatable innovation at scale is a meaningful competitive advantage. That implies that idea factories will become as important (if not more so) than factories that produce material products. Likewise, innovation funnels will become more important than sales funnels.
The world changes at the speed of thought ... and as technology continues to improve ... even faster.
Thankfully, we live in interesting times.
Posted at 07:38 PM in Business, Current Affairs, Ideas, Market Commentary, Trading, Trading Tools, Web/Tech | Permalink | Comments (0)
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